The latest research shows: 1573 continued to rise, entered a rapid growth path, from January to September has completed sales of 1300 tons, throughout the year is expected to exceed 180 tons, almost equal to 2000 tons; special song from the second quarter has sales, not temperature not fire, wine cellar age still is to stop delivery stage, September Bo (low-end products) companies generally only to finish the plan of 50-55%, an increase of significant weakness. We think this year, 1573 has been a comprehensive improvement, growth in the middle and low liquor is to adjust, the annual liquor to give 6200000000 yuan of sales revenue.
We believe that this year is the reversal of the results of the year, but also lay a solid foundation for a year, this year, the year after next will be better.
(1) reverse trend 1573 comprehensive high-grade wine has been very clear, the year is expected to exceed 1800 tons, to 2000 tons. Currently overall inventory is not high, dealers confidence gradually restored, this year will be better next year; mid-range wine this year, the total amount of control, since the two quarter of this year is still in the adjustment phase, the pit age wine has stopped shipping more than a quarter, we estimate the mid-range wine sales will not be too good. But we also see the special song and the age of the wine cellars a number of prices rebounded, gross margin of the dealer in thickening, channel pressure has been a better release, next year will have better performance; low-grade wine series broad currently a bit tired, corporate downsizing plan and low-end wine prices with facilities for the short-term management of the low-grade liquor form drag, long-term aims to cultivate "single product", combing the barcode, standardize management products. We believe that this year's action is a big impact on the performance of the company, the long-term benefit of product mix and brand.
(2) the company is to get rid of the drawbacks of the company's dividend, profit growth to provide protection for later. Decision: change tap a head way, set up a research team to provide the basis for scientific decision-making, the company can also timely know the crux of the problem; the channel to further promote sales management specialization and market, has set up a National Pits 1573 franchise company, three franchise companies operating in parallel to the execution of company of a single product strategy and 22 franchised subsidiaries help to channel sink, break the shortcoming of the "seven springs mode" regional limit. This year the national franchise company focuses on the adjustment and layout, implementation of the next year after landing. Brand building: company's downsizing plan has cleaned up the nearly 25% - 30% of the bar code products, short-term performance is damaged, the long-term benefit of the landing of the focusing of a single product strategy.
Why we are so optimistic about the 1573 volume of sales, based on the following points, we believe that 1573 will continue to maintain high growth.
(1) superior resources. Company to heavy volume, support efforts. In the first half of the company grade wine gross profit margin declined by 4 percentage points, which is mainly positioning the company 1573 volume to give priority to, give discount goods intensity increased, offers significant.
(2) the system's lead: the core of the dealer holdings, incentive. The operation of the franchise company, breaking the regional hot and cold phenomenon, resulting in all of the profits derived from the dealer, the dealer can enjoy the profits of the growth of dividends.
(3) the gross margin of the channel, the dealer's power. As compared to high-end liquor, Wuliangye upside down (subsidy policy is not clear), Maotai dealers subsidies are not clear, and old cellar or to the magnitude of the larger circulation channel margin up nearly 40% (distribution + terminal link), dealer's power is dye in the wood.
(4) a group of around 560 fewer competing products, since the amount of fast. The company in 2012 sales of high-end liquor (more than 800 yuan) sales accounted for nearly 10% of the market capacity, according to 2000 tons of accounting, accounting for less than 6%. We believe that the company's product sales base is small, the volume is fast. In the vicinity of the price of the price of the product, in addition to the Yanghe River dream 6, Wuliangye's five, almost no opponent. 1-9 month sales of the company's rapid growth has shown a strong growth momentum, the inflection point is not yet to continue to give high growth of the pre sentence.
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